As the NHL playoffs continue to wind down, it looks like the Chicago Blackhawks will face off against my Philadelphia Flyers. In a crazy playoff season, three of the four remaining goaltenders aren’t considered upper-tier. My dad always likes to say that all you need in the playoffs is just to qualify and to have a hot goaltender, and Antti Niemi, Jaroslav Halak and Michael Leighton have all done that. But as San Jose sits in a 3 – 0 series deficit and looks poised to exit the playoffs early again this year, two things come to mind. One is that the regular season really is a stretch of 82 warm up games. The second, which follows the first, is that regular season goalies don’t necessarily translate into playoff heroes.
So what does it mean to be an overrated NHL goalie?
We could debate about who was or wasn’t overrated before the lockout, but now that numbers (in stats and in dollars) are even more important in a salary capped league, the picture becomes a little clearer. When a contract is signed, it represents a mixture between prior performance and potential performance and those performances in terms of dollars. Compare other goalies around the league. Consider durability and the number of starts. Count the number of playoff round wins. These can give you a good idea.
Overall, here’s a list of some easy ones and perhaps some more provocative ones:
1. Rick DiPietro, NYI.
There’s no way there could be any competition for DiPietro. Once heralded as the savior of Long Island, he’s become the albatross with a 15-year contract at $4.5 million a year. I still remember where I was the day I heard that announcement: using the free wireless at Berlin’s Sony Center, reading TSN. This was long before the huge deals that started becoming common place with young players with potential, and probably one of the first mega-deals I remember.
What has DiPietro done in Long Island? Well, last season he played 5 games and posted a 3.52GAA and .892SP. The Isles have been in a rebuilding process for as long as I can remember and should give Edmonton a long, hard sneak preview of what life is like.
2. Kari Lehtonen, DAL.
Last year, during the perennial Philadelphia goaltending crisis, there were rumors that the Flyers would go after Lehtonen. Instead, they ended up getting another broken goaltender in Ray Emery. But Emery came at a fraction of the cost of Lehtonen’s $3.5 million.
Once touted as the future in Atlanta’s pipes (like Patrik Stefan was the forward of the future), Lehtonen was decent when he played. A number one goalie should reasonably play at least 55 games, and I doubt Lehtonen will ever get to that point. Last year he came close with 46. He has had some of the worst health and inconsistency issues of any goalie in the league, aside from DiPietro. Despite his history and performance, Dallas GM Joe Nieuwendyk said that they see him as a future #1 goaltender. I guess that makes sense when your current #1 is Marty Turco…
3. Roberto Luongo, VAN.
Yes, I know he won a gold medal. But he’s not a European player, he’s a Canadian. And although winning the gold at home is definitely a remarkable moment, every North American hockey player dreams of a Stanley Cup, not a gold medal.
The first goaltender to captain a team in a long time, Luongo joked in one of his final press conferences of this season that he didn’t let “7 goals in this time,” a reference to last season’s demise at the hands of the Blackhawks. Just the kind of leadership you look for in a $6.75 million player. While he’s proved he can win in the Olympics, and certainly take a few games in the playoffs, he’s overrated until he can take his team further.
4. Evgeni Nabakov, SAN.
Nabakov is a regular season god on a team full of them in San Jose. But every spring, as well as these past Olympics, Nabby lacks the ability to raise his game and carry the team. That the offense hasn’t stepped up doesn’t help, but giving up Saloesque soft goals don’t exactly help momentum either.
And for the Montreal fans remarking on how their playoff story this year is more remarkable than a 3-0 series comeback, Anaheim was #8 last year and knocked off the President’s Trophy winner in San Jose. In the next around, they took the Cup defending Detroit to 7 games. I don’t see much of a difference. What is happening with Montreal isn’t nearly as rare as something that has occurred 3 times in the history of the league.
5. Carey Price, MON.
Price is young and he’s a winner. He’s shown in the AHL and World Juniors that he can be a lights out goalie. But as an NHL goaltender, that remains to be seen. The Flyers made short work of Price during their 2008 matchup.
Earlier on in the year, Jaroslav Halak’s agent started a Twitter war when he posted both players’ stats. Over the past season, Price has gone from the man in Montreal to playoff bench rider as Halak stole the show and his job.
It should be interesting to see how things work out in Montreal, since Price and Halak are both RFAs at the end of next year and Montreal is strapped for cash after huge free agent signings from last season.
Showing posts with label hockey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hockey. Show all posts
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Sunday, May 16, 2010
History Will be Made
If I were home right now, I’d be watching playoff hockey. Despite what the song may claim, it’s not Christmas that’s the most wonderful time of the year. It’s the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs. 16 teams try to get 16 wins over four rounds to capture the Cup.
The Flyers have been a pretty good playoff team in general, in terms of appearances and performance. According to TSN, “The Flyers have had an extraordinary run the last three playoff years. They sit third in the NHL over that span in terms of number of playoff rounds and games, behind only the back-to-back Stanley Cup finalists Detroit Red Wings and Penguins.” That’s not too shabby.
Playoff hockey brings the kind of drama and stories that transcend sport, and this year is no different. The Flyers needed a shootout victory on the last day of the season to even get a playoff berth. Talk about coming down to the wire. Heavily favored as Cup finalists at the start of the season, the team was derailed through inconsistent play and injuries. The Hockey News said that all the Flyers would need is “good, not great” goaltending to perform, and they’ve gotten it from two different netminders this post-season.
Originally the signed as a starter, the team lost Ray Emery in winter for the rest of the season. At that point, Mike Leighton, picked up off of waivers, took over the job. When he was injured, the Flyers relied on the familiar face of Brian Boucher in the pipes as the third-stringer quietly lead them to the post-season by making one last save in a shootout versus the Rangers to give them the #7 seed. The Flyers comeback and unlikely success of giant-killer Montreal highlights the unpredictability of our sport.
In the post-season, they made quick work of former playoff rival New Jersey before going on to meet sixth seeded Boston and promptly going down 3 games to 0. That they would be perfect for four games is almost impossible; that they’d come back to win the deciding game 7 after being down 3-0 before the first period finished is even more so. Their 4-3 win on Friday night capped off a tremendous comeback that only three teams have ever achieved in the history of the NHL.
And you know what? We deserved it. Philadelphia sports teams and Flyers fans have had more than their fair share of disappointments. Whether it’s the 2006 lost season, or blowing a 3-1 series lead to New Jersey after Eric Lindros got another concussion, or the two series losses to the rival Pittsburgh Penguins as we had to watch Sidney Crosby lift the Cup, or the game 7 loss to Tampa Bay. Most of my Flyers post-season memories are sad ones. For once, it feels so nice to be on the other side of history.
My awful internet connection and questionable electricity cooperated enough for me to watch the game in its entirety, right up until it ended at 4:30AM here. I felt the goose bumps rise as the final seconds ticked off the clock. I felt the same feeling in my stomach as I did when Simon Gagne scored in game 6 of the Tampa Bay series all those years ago: that perhaps this was a team of destiny who was capable of something more.
Of course the Flyers went on to lose game 7 against Tampa Bay thanks largely to the play of Nikolai Khabibulin. What comes next for the Flyers is still very up in the air. Debates have raged about whether Montreal is really talented or just really lucky. My guess is that it takes more than luck to beat the #1 seeded team and then dispose of last year’s Cup champions in back-to-back rounds. And there’s the overwhelming belief that the Cup will go to a Western team and that the Eastern Conference’s two remaining teams are flukes.
But in a playoff stretch that will now see the #7 and #8 seeds faceoff for a ticket to the finals, anything is possible. The only thing we can know for sure is that we will probably never see another feat as epic as the one the Flyers pulled off in this past week. And that is something truly special no matter what happens.
The Flyers have been a pretty good playoff team in general, in terms of appearances and performance. According to TSN, “The Flyers have had an extraordinary run the last three playoff years. They sit third in the NHL over that span in terms of number of playoff rounds and games, behind only the back-to-back Stanley Cup finalists Detroit Red Wings and Penguins.” That’s not too shabby.
Playoff hockey brings the kind of drama and stories that transcend sport, and this year is no different. The Flyers needed a shootout victory on the last day of the season to even get a playoff berth. Talk about coming down to the wire. Heavily favored as Cup finalists at the start of the season, the team was derailed through inconsistent play and injuries. The Hockey News said that all the Flyers would need is “good, not great” goaltending to perform, and they’ve gotten it from two different netminders this post-season.
Originally the signed as a starter, the team lost Ray Emery in winter for the rest of the season. At that point, Mike Leighton, picked up off of waivers, took over the job. When he was injured, the Flyers relied on the familiar face of Brian Boucher in the pipes as the third-stringer quietly lead them to the post-season by making one last save in a shootout versus the Rangers to give them the #7 seed. The Flyers comeback and unlikely success of giant-killer Montreal highlights the unpredictability of our sport.
In the post-season, they made quick work of former playoff rival New Jersey before going on to meet sixth seeded Boston and promptly going down 3 games to 0. That they would be perfect for four games is almost impossible; that they’d come back to win the deciding game 7 after being down 3-0 before the first period finished is even more so. Their 4-3 win on Friday night capped off a tremendous comeback that only three teams have ever achieved in the history of the NHL.
And you know what? We deserved it. Philadelphia sports teams and Flyers fans have had more than their fair share of disappointments. Whether it’s the 2006 lost season, or blowing a 3-1 series lead to New Jersey after Eric Lindros got another concussion, or the two series losses to the rival Pittsburgh Penguins as we had to watch Sidney Crosby lift the Cup, or the game 7 loss to Tampa Bay. Most of my Flyers post-season memories are sad ones. For once, it feels so nice to be on the other side of history.
My awful internet connection and questionable electricity cooperated enough for me to watch the game in its entirety, right up until it ended at 4:30AM here. I felt the goose bumps rise as the final seconds ticked off the clock. I felt the same feeling in my stomach as I did when Simon Gagne scored in game 6 of the Tampa Bay series all those years ago: that perhaps this was a team of destiny who was capable of something more.
Of course the Flyers went on to lose game 7 against Tampa Bay thanks largely to the play of Nikolai Khabibulin. What comes next for the Flyers is still very up in the air. Debates have raged about whether Montreal is really talented or just really lucky. My guess is that it takes more than luck to beat the #1 seeded team and then dispose of last year’s Cup champions in back-to-back rounds. And there’s the overwhelming belief that the Cup will go to a Western team and that the Eastern Conference’s two remaining teams are flukes.
But in a playoff stretch that will now see the #7 and #8 seeds faceoff for a ticket to the finals, anything is possible. The only thing we can know for sure is that we will probably never see another feat as epic as the one the Flyers pulled off in this past week. And that is something truly special no matter what happens.
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Sports Predictions Made Easy / NHL 09-10 so far
I’m always frustrated at the lack of creativity when it comes to how annual yearbooks predict potential champions. I’m fairly certain they just use this formula, in three easy steps*:
1. Look up the finalists from last season
2. Say they will meet again*
3. Say the team that won last season will repeat.
*If you are The Sporting News, pick the most tired option in assuming that San Jose will make it to the Western Conference finals even though they’ve been at the top of the league or lead it in points but can’t manage to string any playoff wins together. Of course the Penguins could very well win again, but many predicted Detroit to repeat last year… so you see where this is headed.
We’re already to the Christmas break in the NHL and the Olympics are just around the corner. It kills me to think that I won’t get to see much of them, but I’m secretly hoping to download some of the games afterwards. Although it’s hard to really gauge since I can only follow from box scores, standings and statistics, but I feel like this has been one of the oddest years in recent history.
First, we have to talk about my team. With a huge trade to bring in this year’s predicted “missing piece,” it’s apparent that it will take more than Chris Pronger to take the Flyers anywhere. Losing Knuble and Lupul have certainly hurt. As time passes by, it appears that Simon Gagne is no longer a durable player. Spending so much has left little room for goaltending and the Flyers might really be sunk with Ray Emery on the shelf. Rumors had Jaroslav Halak being offered on a deal, which means that maybe his agent can make Tweets about Ray Emery too in the near future. In my opinion, the Flyers should have thought about Halak and Pavelec last year when the price would have been cheaper both for trading and signing. But it doesn’t matter how good a goalie is if there is little being done offensively, which has certainly been the case. The good news is that, just like when I missed the season in 2006 when I was in Germany, if I’m not there to see them fail, it’s like it doesn’t happen. Call it “distance-induced sports denial,” if you will.
That the Wings have been bringing up the rear is surprising. But that’s not the only eye-popper about the Western Conference standings. The Kings? The Coyotes? Believe me when I say I couldn’t be more surprised or happier about that. Phoenix is not the hockey town it was in its early days when the franchise had a lot of early success. Given the financial situation with home values in Phoenix and the recent failure of the team, it’s not surprising that the situation has become so dire. But on ice success will hopefully help to right the wrongs of poorly thought out overexpansion into unstable and sometimes unnecessary markets.
I continue to be amazed at the length of contracts. Hockey has become so complex during the age of the salary cap. The times were simpler when teams like the Rangers, Wings and Flyers were the highest spenders. The cap has brought an understandably huge collection of numbers with it. Cap hit? Average salary? LTIR (Mike Rathje, where are you?) The amount teams pay for players daily as worked out by their annual salary and the number of days in the season?
But with any system, teams will eventually find a way to push it as far as they can, and the answer to this problem: long, long contracts that lead to “it seemed like a good idea at the time” regrets. Consider it hockey’s idea of a 2 at 10 and a 10 at 2. I want to stab myself when I think that Danny Briere will be a Flyer for a few more years, but at the time it was a necessary signing given the team’s then-status as worst in the league. But you have to wonder how signing players until their late thirties to contracts into what’s increasingly become a young man’s game will do. To that extent, it will be a brave new long-term contract world in about five years or so. The length and amount of contracts also limits the mobility of a player. If you sign someone to a long-term deal and they start underperforming in year two, there is no painless solution to this problem.
For teams like Chicago, Pittsburgh, Washington, these deals are necessary because they overwhelmingly involve young players. Lest we forget, they are commodities in addition to being human beings. Their commitment to stay with the team means all kinds of profits: aside from the most obvious in ticket sales, merchandising accounts for a lot of money. Emerging teams stand to gain so much from locking up young players, even though it’s not without risk. Alex Ovechkin, at 24, has already missed a few games to injury so far this season. The thing that fans love about him might be what plagues him in the later years of his huge deal: his style of play. What happens when you sign young players and they either fizzle or become plagued with injury? In the game of long contracts, I’d still say it’s best to roll the dice on young players instead of signing veterans already on the downturn of their careers.
1. Look up the finalists from last season
2. Say they will meet again*
3. Say the team that won last season will repeat.
*If you are The Sporting News, pick the most tired option in assuming that San Jose will make it to the Western Conference finals even though they’ve been at the top of the league or lead it in points but can’t manage to string any playoff wins together. Of course the Penguins could very well win again, but many predicted Detroit to repeat last year… so you see where this is headed.
We’re already to the Christmas break in the NHL and the Olympics are just around the corner. It kills me to think that I won’t get to see much of them, but I’m secretly hoping to download some of the games afterwards. Although it’s hard to really gauge since I can only follow from box scores, standings and statistics, but I feel like this has been one of the oddest years in recent history.
First, we have to talk about my team. With a huge trade to bring in this year’s predicted “missing piece,” it’s apparent that it will take more than Chris Pronger to take the Flyers anywhere. Losing Knuble and Lupul have certainly hurt. As time passes by, it appears that Simon Gagne is no longer a durable player. Spending so much has left little room for goaltending and the Flyers might really be sunk with Ray Emery on the shelf. Rumors had Jaroslav Halak being offered on a deal, which means that maybe his agent can make Tweets about Ray Emery too in the near future. In my opinion, the Flyers should have thought about Halak and Pavelec last year when the price would have been cheaper both for trading and signing. But it doesn’t matter how good a goalie is if there is little being done offensively, which has certainly been the case. The good news is that, just like when I missed the season in 2006 when I was in Germany, if I’m not there to see them fail, it’s like it doesn’t happen. Call it “distance-induced sports denial,” if you will.
That the Wings have been bringing up the rear is surprising. But that’s not the only eye-popper about the Western Conference standings. The Kings? The Coyotes? Believe me when I say I couldn’t be more surprised or happier about that. Phoenix is not the hockey town it was in its early days when the franchise had a lot of early success. Given the financial situation with home values in Phoenix and the recent failure of the team, it’s not surprising that the situation has become so dire. But on ice success will hopefully help to right the wrongs of poorly thought out overexpansion into unstable and sometimes unnecessary markets.
I continue to be amazed at the length of contracts. Hockey has become so complex during the age of the salary cap. The times were simpler when teams like the Rangers, Wings and Flyers were the highest spenders. The cap has brought an understandably huge collection of numbers with it. Cap hit? Average salary? LTIR (Mike Rathje, where are you?) The amount teams pay for players daily as worked out by their annual salary and the number of days in the season?
But with any system, teams will eventually find a way to push it as far as they can, and the answer to this problem: long, long contracts that lead to “it seemed like a good idea at the time” regrets. Consider it hockey’s idea of a 2 at 10 and a 10 at 2. I want to stab myself when I think that Danny Briere will be a Flyer for a few more years, but at the time it was a necessary signing given the team’s then-status as worst in the league. But you have to wonder how signing players until their late thirties to contracts into what’s increasingly become a young man’s game will do. To that extent, it will be a brave new long-term contract world in about five years or so. The length and amount of contracts also limits the mobility of a player. If you sign someone to a long-term deal and they start underperforming in year two, there is no painless solution to this problem.
For teams like Chicago, Pittsburgh, Washington, these deals are necessary because they overwhelmingly involve young players. Lest we forget, they are commodities in addition to being human beings. Their commitment to stay with the team means all kinds of profits: aside from the most obvious in ticket sales, merchandising accounts for a lot of money. Emerging teams stand to gain so much from locking up young players, even though it’s not without risk. Alex Ovechkin, at 24, has already missed a few games to injury so far this season. The thing that fans love about him might be what plagues him in the later years of his huge deal: his style of play. What happens when you sign young players and they either fizzle or become plagued with injury? In the game of long contracts, I’d still say it’s best to roll the dice on young players instead of signing veterans already on the downturn of their careers.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
NHL Apparel
I’ve seen some random NHL apparel here. When I was shopping at the second hand market in Kavaje, I spotted one of those hideous RBK Islanders jerseys. I bought a Red Wings Stanley Cup champion t-shirt at one of those same markets. And the other day, a student walked into the office in a Wings shirt. I doubt seriously if anyone knows what these teams really are. Which only breaks my heart even more as the first of two lost seasons for me opens.
But the best display of NHL apparel was what I saw today. Now, it’s not a secret that there are a lot of traffic accidents here. Turn on the news and you can see the latest horrors. But for all the accidents, there are infinite amounts of near misses. Sitting in the furgon on my way to Durres I saw a bunch of stopped cars. Apparently the cause for the stoppage was a car that tried to make a spontaneous u-turn and timed it badly. Although there was no accident, it must have come very close to taking out a car traveling in the opposite direction. The driver of the car making the u-turn was out of his car, along with his wife, and screaming in the face of another driver.
The driver that made the u-turn? A 350 pound Italian wearing a red number 23. I know he was huge because I could see him, and I know he was Italian because I could hear him. Seeing the number and the color scheme, I thought to myself, “Oh God, I really, really hope…” And my wish was granted when we got closer: on the back of the mammoth Italian was a #23 Scott Gomez New Jersey Devils t-shirt. I guess I could make a joke about shouting, overweight Italians that are Devils fans, but that would almost be too obvious, wouldn’t it?
But the best display of NHL apparel was what I saw today. Now, it’s not a secret that there are a lot of traffic accidents here. Turn on the news and you can see the latest horrors. But for all the accidents, there are infinite amounts of near misses. Sitting in the furgon on my way to Durres I saw a bunch of stopped cars. Apparently the cause for the stoppage was a car that tried to make a spontaneous u-turn and timed it badly. Although there was no accident, it must have come very close to taking out a car traveling in the opposite direction. The driver of the car making the u-turn was out of his car, along with his wife, and screaming in the face of another driver.
The driver that made the u-turn? A 350 pound Italian wearing a red number 23. I know he was huge because I could see him, and I know he was Italian because I could hear him. Seeing the number and the color scheme, I thought to myself, “Oh God, I really, really hope…” And my wish was granted when we got closer: on the back of the mammoth Italian was a #23 Scott Gomez New Jersey Devils t-shirt. I guess I could make a joke about shouting, overweight Italians that are Devils fans, but that would almost be too obvious, wouldn’t it?
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